US Election

    CA-16 House Election Margin of Victory

    Democrat 55-60% leads by 3 pts

    1. Democrat 55-60%#17%
    2. Democrat 35-40%#24%
    3. Democrat 65%+#34%
    #4 Democrat 60-65%4%#5 Democrat 25-35%4%+3 more
    Resolves
    Jan 14, 2027
    Volume
    $542
    24h
    $0
    Liquidity
    $231
    Candidates
    8
    Polymarket US1 venue · 8 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Democrat 55-60%7%
    • Democrat 35-40%4%
    • Democrat 65%+4%
    • Democrat 60-65%4%
    • Democrat 25-35%4%
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    Signals

    Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

    Every candidate, every venue

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    Democrat 55-60%$30 vol7%—Polymarket US7¢fee unknown
    Democrat 35-40%$30 vol4%▼ 1Polymarket US5¢fee unknown
    Democrat 65%+$30 vol4%—Polymarket US4¢fee unknown
    Democrat 60-65%$30 vol4%—Polymarket US4¢fee unknown
    Democrat 25-35%$30 vol4%▼ 1Polymarket US5¢fee unknown
    Democrat 45-50%$30 vol3%▼ 1Polymarket US4¢fee unknown
    Democrat 40-45%$30 vol3%▼ 1Polymarket US4¢fee unknown
    Democrat 0-25%$332 vol2%—Polymarket US2¢fee unknown

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

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    Polymarket USPolymarket US

    CA-16 House Election Margin of Victory

    Full rules on Polymarket US ↗

    About this market

    The 2026 CA-16 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-16 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Thu, January 14, 2027
    Polymarket USCompared across 1 venue

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