Brazil presidential election winner?

    Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

    Resolves Oct 4, 2026
    Total Volume

    $95.0M

    +$857.7K (24h)

    Active Markets

    18

    Across 3 platforms

    Frontrunner

    41¢

    Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

    Biggest Mover 24h

    +2¢

    Renan Santos

    Arb Opportunities

    1

    Best gross: 4.9¢ / $1 pair

    All Markets

    18 markets · Showing 8
    #
    141¢41¢42¢69¢
    $6.3M+$9.7K 24h
    -1¢
    229¢29¢33¢65¢
    $6.7M+$32.5K 24h
    🔥
    316¢16¢18¢
    $6.7M+$130.8K 24h
    +2¢
    4
    $5.5M+$19.7K 24h
    5
    $3.5M+$31.0K 24h
    6
    Ronaldo Caiado📈 Trending
    $3.8M+$177.2K 24h
    7
    $2.9M+$18.4K 24h
    8
    $4.3M+$40.2K 24h

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
    41%
    41¢-1¢
    2Flávio Bolsonaro
    29%
    29¢
    3Romeu Zema

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Oct 4, 2026

    ~124 days remaining
    Category
    Politics
    Markets
    18
    Platforms
    3
    Total Volume
    $95.0M
    Arb Opportunities
    1

    Whale Activity

    Whale

    sold $23K No on Flávio Bolsonaro

    polymarket · 20 days ago

    Whale

    sold $21K Yes on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

    polymarket · about 1 month ago

    Whale

    bought $11K Yes on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

    polymarket · 12 days ago

    Whale

    bought $11K No on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

    polymarket · 7 days ago

    View all whale activity →

    Timeline

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 27.8% in 24h

      Luiz Inácio Lula · PredictIt

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 38.5% in 24h

      Renan Santos · Kalshi

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 11.1% in 24h

      Jair Bolsonaro · Polymarket

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 20.0% in 24h

      Michelle Bolsonaro · Polymarket

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 5.3% in 24h

      Jair Bolsonaro · Kalshi