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    AR-04 House Election Margin of Victory

    Resolves Nov 3, 2026
    Total Volume

    $24.6K

    +$46 (24h)

    Active Markets

    10

    Across 1 platform

    Frontrunner

    27¢

    Republican 30-35%

    Biggest Mover 24h

    -5¢

    Republican 35-40%

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    10 markets
    #
    1
    Republican 30-35%
    		27¢27¢
    $9.2K+$26 24h
    		-1¢—
    2
    Republican 35-40%
    		21¢21¢
    $4.8K+$20 24h
    		-5¢—
    3
    Republican 25-30%
    		18¢18¢
    $1.3K
    		-2¢—
    4
    Republican 40-45%
    		11¢11¢
    $4.6K
    		-2¢—
    5
    Republican 15-25%
    		4¢4¢
    $1.3K
    		-3¢—
    6
    Republican 45-50%
    		4¢4¢
    $1.8K
    		-3¢—
    7
    Republican 0-15%
    		3¢3¢
    $311
    		-2¢—
    8
    Republican 50-55%
    		2¢2¢
    $369
    		-1¢—
    9
    Democrat Wins
    		1¢1¢
    $277
    		-1¢—
    10
    Republican 55%+
    		1¢1¢
    $491
    		——

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1Republican 30-35%
    27%
    27¢-1¢
    2Republican 35-40%
    21%
    21¢-5¢
    3Republican 25-30%
    18%
    18¢-2¢
    4Republican 40-45%
    11¢-2¢
    5Republican 15-25%
    4¢-3¢
    6Republican 45-50%
    4¢-3¢
    7Republican 0-15%
    3¢-2¢
    8Republican 50-55%
    2¢-1¢
    9Democrat Wins
    1¢-1¢
    10Republican 55%+
    1¢—

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Nov 3, 2026

    ~21 days remaining
    Category
    Politics
    Markets
    10
    Platforms
    1
    Total Volume
    $24.6K

    Whale Activity

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