TRADING OPEN

    AR-04 House Election Margin of Victory

    Resolves Nov 3, 2026
    Total Volume

    $26.4K

    +$595 (24h)

    Active Markets

    10

    Across 1 platform

    Frontrunner

    27¢

    Republican 35-40%

    Biggest Mover 24h

    +10¢

    Republican 40-45%

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    10 markets
    #
    1
    Republican 35-40%
    		27¢27¢
    $4.9K
    		+4¢—
    2
    Republican 30-35%
    		26¢26¢
    $10.4K+$225 24h
    		-4¢—
    3
    Republican 40-45%
    		21¢21¢
    $4.8K+$160 24h
    		+10¢—
    4
    Republican 25-30%
    		17¢17¢
    $1.5K+$193 24h
    		-3¢—
    5
    Republican 15-25%
    		7¢7¢
    $1.4K
    		-5¢—
    6
    Democrat Wins Hot
    		5¢5¢
    $320
    		-5¢—
    7
    Republican 45-50%
    		3¢3¢
    $1.9K+$17 24h
    		-2¢—
    8
    Republican 0-15% Hot
    		3¢3¢
    $331
    		-1¢—
    9
    Republican 50-55%
    		2¢2¢
    $369
    		-1¢—
    10
    Republican 55%+
    		0¢0¢
    $491
    		——

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1Republican 35-40%
    27%
    27¢+4¢
    2Republican 30-35%
    26%
    26¢-4¢
    3Republican 40-45%
    21%
    21¢+10¢
    4Republican 25-30%
    17%
    17¢-3¢
    5Republican 15-25%
    7¢-5¢
    6Democrat Wins
    5¢-5¢
    7Republican 45-50%
    3¢-2¢
    8Republican 0-15%
    3¢-1¢
    9Republican 50-55%
    2¢-1¢
    10Republican 55%+
    0¢—

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Nov 3, 2026

    ~14 days remaining
    Category
    Politics
    Markets
    10
    Platforms
    1
    Total Volume
    $26.4K

    Whale Activity

    Loading...