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    8s

    When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

    Resolves Jul 1, 2027
    Total Volume

    $10.0M

    +$145.7K (24h)

    Active Markets

    9

    Across 1 platforms

    Frontrunner

    86¢

    Before Jul 1, 2027

    Biggest Mover 24h

    -7¢

    Before Sep 1, 2026

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    9 markets · Showing 8
    #
    1
    Before Jul 1, 2027
    		86¢86¢
    $279.4K+$1.2K 24h
    		-1¢—
    2
    Before Apr 1, 2027
    		82¢83¢
    $130.8K+$2.3K 24h
    		-1¢—
    3
    Before Jan 1, 2027
    		67¢67¢
    $428.3K+$5.5K 24h
    		-4¢—
    4
    Before Oct 1, 2026
    		51¢51¢
    $302.3K+$11.7K 24h
    		-5¢—
    5
    Before Sep 1, 2026
    		40¢40¢
    $426.6K+$7.6K 24h
    		-7¢—
    6
    Before Aug 1, 2026
    		33¢33¢
    $963.7K+$13.4K 24h
    		-2¢—
    7
    Before Jul 1, 2026
    		16¢16¢
    $2.7M+$34.1K 24h
    		-1¢—
    8
    Before Jun 15, 2026
    		4¢4¢
    $1.0M
    		——

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1Before Jul 1, 2027
    86%
    86¢-1¢
    2Before Apr 1, 2027
    82%
    82¢-1¢
    3Before Jan 1, 2027
    67%
    67¢-4¢
    4Before Oct 1, 2026
    51%
    51¢-5¢
    5Before Sep 1, 2026
    40%
    40¢-7¢
    6Before Aug 1, 2026
    33%
    33¢-2¢
    7Before Jul 1, 2026
    16%
    16¢-1¢
    8Before Jun 15, 2026
    4¢—
    9Before Jun 1, 2026
    0¢—

    Price History

    Before Jul 1, 2027Before Apr 1, 2027Before Jan 1, 2027Before Oct 1, 2026
    May 26 11:41May 27 14:57May 28 17:54May 29 20:59May 30 23:55Jun 1 02:59Jun 2 08:207.4%32.4%57.4%98.6%

    Related reading

    External
    Politics

    Traders are skeptical of Iran timeline for Strait of Hormuz reopening

    1 minDavis Giangiulio
    Politics

    Strait of Hormuz Reopening? Limited Oil and LNG Tanker Traffic Resumes Through Key Gulf Chokepoint

    1 minJustin Varghese
    Politics

    Why the Strait of Hormuz will take a long time to reboot

    1 minUnknown
    Politics

    Strait of Hormuz traffic disrupted until September, Kalshi traders say

    1 minDavis Giangiulio
    Politics

    Hormuz reopening slows oil price relief as security and clearance drag - CHOSUNBIZ

    1 minUnknown
    Politics

    Oil flows through Strait of Hormuz won’t return to normal until next year even if war ended tomorrow, warns energy boss - Yahoo News Canada

    1 minUnknown
    Politics

    When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to nor | Octagon AI

    1 minOctagon AI
    Politics

    Iran would open Strait of Hormuz 30 days after peace deal - The Economic Times

    1 minUnknown

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Jul 1, 2027

    ~395 days remaining
    Category
    Politics
    Markets
    9
    Platforms
    1
    Total Volume
    $10.0M

    Whale Activity

    Whale

    sold $50K No on Before Jun 1, 2026

    kalshi · about 7 hours ago

    Whale

    sold $33K No on Before Jun 1, 2026

    kalshi · 4 days ago

    Whale

    sold $30K No on Before Jun 1, 2026

    kalshi · 4 days ago

    Whale

    sold $20K No on Before Jun 1, 2026

    kalshi · 9 days ago

    View all whale activity →

    Timeline

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 11.8% in 24h

      Before Jul 1, 2026 · Kalshi

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 5.7% in 24h

      Before Aug 1, 2026 · Kalshi

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 8.9% in 24h

      Before Oct 1, 2026 · Kalshi

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 14.9% in 24h

      Before Sep 1, 2026 · Kalshi

    • Price MoveJun 2, 7:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 7.1% in 24h

      Before Oct 1, 2026 · Kalshi