2028 Presidential Election: Montana Winner

    Republican party leads by 43 pts · 2 candidates at 5%+

    1. Republican party#174%
    2. Democratic party#231%
    Resolves
    Nov 21, 2028
    Volume
    $200
    24h
    $0
    Liquidity
    $83
    Candidates
    2
    kalshiPolymarket USPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US3 venues · 2 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Republican party74%
    • Democratic party31%
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    Signals

    4 signals
    1. Democratic party24h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hkalshiPolymarket US
    2. Republican party24h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hPolymarket USPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    3. Republican party24h
      40¢ apart across venuesPolymarket USkalshi
    4. Democratic party24h
      36¢ apart across venueskalshiPolymarket US

    Every candidate, every venue

    3 venues
    ChanceBest
    Republican party$200 vol · 40¢ apart74%▼ 3Polymarket US51¢fee unknown
    Democratic party$0 vol · 36¢ apart31%▼ 4kalshi15¢16¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Republican party40¢buy Polymarket US
    • Democratic party36¢buy kalshi
    • Polymarket US
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If the Republican Party wins the most electoral votes in Montana in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket USPolymarket US

    2028 Presidential Election: Montana Winner

    Full rules on Polymarket US ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Montana in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate w…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Montana in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Montana results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Tue, November 21, 2028
    kalshiPolymarket USPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 3 venues

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