Resolution criteria, clarifications, and what you actually agreed to when you entered a market.
Resolution criteria
Locked at market listing
The core question — will X happen or not — cannot change once the market opens.
Resolution interpretation
Clarifiable before evidence window closes
How the question is measured can be specified if the original wording was genuinely ambiguous — but only within the evidence window.
If you believe a clarification contradicts the plain text of the original criteria — not just your interpretation — you have grounds for a formal dispute.
Not everything that looks like a rule change is one. Understanding the distinction protects you.
Almost never
What it is
The resolution question itself changes — a fundamentally different outcome is now being measured.
Example
"Will X win the championship?" becomes "Will X reach the final round?" — a completely different question with a different set of outcomes.
What exchanges can do
Exchanges almost never do this. If the core question changes, the market would need to be voided and positions refunded — not clarified. If this happens, file a dispute immediately.
What you can do
Submit a dispute to the exchange's official dispute channel. If unresolved, file a formal complaint with the CFTC at cftc.gov/complaint for CFTC-regulated platforms (Kalshi, Robinhood Predictions).
Every market has a resolution timeline with three stages. Understanding where you are in that timeline tells you what is still possible.
Event end date
The event itself concludes. The market stops accepting new positions. The outcome of the underlying event is now knowable.
Evidence window opens
The designated resolution source reports. Committee review, dispute submission, and clarifications all happen here. This window is the only time an exchange can issue a clarification — once it closes, the interpretation is locked.
Resolution finalized
The outcome is set. Positions settle. No further changes are possible — the exchange cannot retroactively modify a finalized resolution.
The key rule: Any exchange communication about interpretation must occur inside the evidence window. A clarification issued before resolution is finalized is permitted if the original wording was ambiguous. A "clarification" issued after finalization is not a clarification — it is a reversal, which is not permitted.
When you enter a Polymarket or Kalshi market, you agree to the exchange's published rulebook — not just the market title. Both rulebooks explicitly reserve the right to clarify ambiguous wording.
The practical implication: If original criteria is clear and unambiguous, and the exchange resolves differently — that is a dispute, not a clarification. If the original wording was genuinely ambiguous, the exchange has contractual authority to specify the interpretation within the evidence window. The line between "ambiguous" and "clear" is where most disputes are fought.
When a resolution feels wrong, work through these questions before deciding whether to dispute.
Was the clarification announced before the evidence window closed?
Does the interpretation contradict the plain text of the original criteria?
Did the exchange follow its own published dispute process?
Dispute window
Submit dispute within 2 hours of initial resolution. Include original criteria screenshot.
UMA committee review
UMA token holders vote on disputed outcomes. Process takes 48–72 hours.
If unsuccessful
Document your dispute timeline; Polymarket US (QCX LLC, DCM #49571) is a CFTC-registered DCM — if the exchange fails to follow its own procedures, escalate to the CFTC via cftc.gov/complaint.
Exchange dispute
Submit via the platform's official dispute form. CFTC-licensed DCMs are required to have documented dispute procedures.
Escalate internally
If the exchange does not follow its own published procedures, escalate to the exchange's compliance team.
CFTC complaint
File at cftc.gov/complaint. The CFTC can investigate if a registered DCM fails to follow its own rulebook.
Five signals that reduce interpretive risk before you take a position.
Read the resolution criteria, not just the market title
Market titles are summaries. The actual resolution criteria — what counts, what source is used, what the evidence window is — live in the market description. Read the full text before entering.
Look for "at the discretion of the exchange" clauses
Both Polymarket and Kalshi rulebooks reserve clarification rights. If the criteria contains broad discretion language, interpretive risk is higher. Factor that into your position sizing.
Note the evidence window end date
The evidence window is the period after the event end date during which the resolution source can report and disputes can be filed. Any clarification must be issued inside this window. After finalization, the result cannot change.
Check how similar markets resolved in the past
If the exchange has resolved similar markets before, the precedent often clarifies how the current one will resolve. Past resolution notes are usually archived on the platform.
Confirm the resolution source is independently verifiable
Markets with resolution sources you can check yourself — official statistics providers, government data releases, court dockets — carry less interpretive risk than markets resolved by exchange committee judgment.
Prediction Market Trust Erosion
The four trust mechanisms and how they erode — resolution disputes, marketing, withdrawal friction, regulatory.
How to Audit a Prediction Market Resolution
Step-by-step: after the fact, did the resolution actually match the criteria?
Understanding Contract Wording
How to read resolution criteria before you enter a market — not after.
Polymarket Resolution Clause Fallback
What happens when the designated resolution source fails or becomes unavailable.
