Analysis

    Robinhood Eyes Crypto.com Deal as Prediction Market Multi-Exchange Race Intensifies

    The Wall Street Journal reports Robinhood is in talks with Crypto.com's CDNA to add a fourth exchange to its prediction-markets hub — accelerating its break from Kalshi.

    By Prediction Markets US Analysis DeskSaturday, July 25, 20268 min read
    Robinhood Eyes Crypto.com Deal as Prediction Market Multi-Exchange Race Intensifies

    Robinhood is in active talks with Crypto.com to add the cryptocurrency exchange's CFTC-regulated event contracts to its prediction-markets hub, The Wall Street Journal reported on July 24. The discussions, if they lead to a deal, would allow Robinhood's tens of millions of retail investors to trade Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA) yes-or-no contracts without leaving the Robinhood app.

    The talks remain ongoing. Robinhood said it plans to "continue working with multiple exchanges" to give customers access to a "more diverse marketplace" — a statement that signals deliberate strategy, not a one-off deal. If completed, the partnership would give Robinhood four independent contract sources: Kalshi, ForecastEx, its own Rothera exchange, and now potentially CDNA.

    It would also mark another step in the gradual untethering of Robinhood from Kalshi — the exchange that originally powered its prediction-markets ambitions.

    How Robinhood Built Its Multi-Exchange Strategy

    Robinhood launched its Predictions Hub in early 2025 through a foundational partnership with Kalshi, one of the first CFTC-designated contract markets in the country. The arrangement gave Robinhood's retail audience immediate access to Kalshi's catalog of event contracts — everything from Federal Reserve rate decisions to sports championship outcomes — without Robinhood needing to build exchange infrastructure from scratch.

    That partnership remains active. But the competitive dynamics between the two companies have since shifted considerably.

    Robinhood subsequently added ForecastEx — the event-contracts exchange operated by Interactive Brokers — as a second contract source. Then, in a more structurally significant move, it partnered with quantitative trading firm Susquehanna International Group (SIG) to acquire a majority stake in LedgerX, an existing CFTC-regulated futures exchange. Robinhood and SIG rebranded LedgerX as Rothera and launched it as Robinhood's own event-contracts exchange, which began operating in 2026.

    According to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, Rothera already accounts for 16% of Robinhood's total event contract volumes. The firm's stated intent is clear: while it still benefits from Kalshi's marketplace, owning its own exchange gives Robinhood greater control over pricing, product development, and the long-term economics of the prediction-markets business.

    What Crypto.com CDNA Brings to the Table

    Crypto.com is not a new entrant to U.S. prediction markets. Its U.S. subsidiary, Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA), is regulated by the CFTC as a designated contract market for event contracts. The company launched OG — its own standalone consumer prediction-markets platform — in February 2026, bringing retail traders a social-forward interface for sports, economics, and other outcomes.

    Beyond OG, Crypto.com has been expanding CDNA's infrastructure role within the broader industry. In late 2025, Crypto.com and Trump Media & Technology Group announced a partnership that would introduce prediction markets to Truth Social, though the service had not yet launched as of July 2026, per the Journal's reporting.

    A deal with Robinhood would represent a step change in CDNA's reach. Robinhood's Predictions Hub is one of the largest retail distribution channels in the U.S. market, with event-contract trading volume that reached $3.9 billion in May 2026 alone, up 22% from the prior month. That kind of distribution is exactly what CDNA needs to accelerate its position against Kalshi's institutional lead.

    The competitive logic runs in both directions: Robinhood gets a new catalog of CDNA contracts and diversifies away from single-exchange dependency, while Crypto.com gains access to a retail audience that makes its existing platform partnerships look like a rounding error.

    The Volume Context: A $113.8 Billion Quarter

    The stakes behind these negotiations are substantial. Global prediction markets posted $113.8 billion in notional trading volume in the second quarter of 2026, up 48.7% from the prior quarter, according to CoinGecko data cited by The Wall Street Journal. That growth reflects a sector that has moved well beyond its electoral-politics niche into a broadly accessible financial product.

    The 2026 FIFA World Cup illustrated the scale of what is now possible. Kalshi's World Cup-linked contracts generated $27 billion in trading volume, according to the Journal, compared with approximately $1 billion for Super Bowl-related markets — a multiplier that underscores how international sporting events have become the single largest driver of prediction-market volume.

    Robinhood was a meaningful contributor to that growth. Its event-contract volumes surged alongside the broader sector, and Rothera — its own exchange — surpassed Crypto.com for third place in notional volume during the World Cup cycle, according to Sportico's analysis of Dune dashboard data and independent research.

    Bernstein projects Robinhood's prediction-markets business will grow at a 64% annual rate through 2028, generating approximately $1.7 billion in revenue by that year. The firm expects prediction markets, perpetual futures, and tokenized equities to account for roughly one-quarter of Robinhood's total revenue by 2028 — a projection that frames the Crypto.com talks as more than an incremental product decision.

    The Kalshi "Frenemy" Problem

    Robinhood's multi-exchange strategy has created an awkward dynamic with its original partner.

    Bernstein described the Robinhood-Kalshi relationship as a "frenemy" arrangement: Robinhood still distributes Kalshi's contracts to customers, providing Kalshi with retail distribution it values. But Robinhood simultaneously operates Rothera — its own exchange that competes directly with Kalshi for volume. Analysts have recorded a decline in the share of Kalshi's trading volumes coming from Robinhood customers, per the Journal's reporting.

    Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour acknowledged the competitive shift in June, publicly stating that Kalshi now regards Robinhood as one of its largest competitors. That statement — from the CEO of Robinhood's founding partner — captures the transformation of what began as a straightforward distribution deal into a full competitive rivalry.

    Adding CDNA would deepen that dynamic. Crypto.com's event contract catalog spans categories that overlap substantially with Kalshi's own markets — sports, economics, and political outcomes — meaning Robinhood traders would gain direct price comparison across venues within the same app. Price competition between exchanges, surfaced through a single user interface, erodes any exchange's ability to sustain a premium through exclusive distribution.

    Robinhood is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 29. Prediction-markets revenue is expected to be a significant focus of analyst attention given the volume surge generated during the World Cup cycle.

    What It Means for Traders

    For retail participants, Robinhood's multi-exchange approach points toward greater choice and tighter price competition over time. When the same underlying event — whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates, or which team will win a championship — is tradeable across Kalshi, ForecastEx, Rothera, and potentially CDNA through a single interface, arbitrage pressure between venues will compress pricing discrepancies.

    It also expands market access. CDNA's contract catalog differs from Kalshi's in scope and structure. A Robinhood-CDNA integration would potentially give retail users access to categories and market types not currently available through the Predictions Hub.

    State restrictions remain a variable. Several states have filed suits or enacted regulations targeting sports-related event contracts, and any platform accessing Robinhood's distribution must operate within CFTC jurisdiction. CDNA's existing state availability constraints — currently limited in several states including Nevada, New York, and others — will shape how much of Robinhood's user base can actually access CDNA contracts if a deal is reached.

    The Prediction Markets Infrastructure Map

    The U.S. prediction markets industry has consolidated around a small number of exchange infrastructure providers. Understanding who powers what matters for traders evaluating where to find the deepest liquidity and broadest market access:

    Exchange InfrastructureCFTC StatusKey Consumer Channels
    KalshiDCM + DCORobinhood, Coinbase, PrizePicks, Webull, Moomoo
    Crypto.com CDNADCMOG (owned), Truth Social (pending), Robinhood (in talks)
    ForecastEx (IBKR)DCMRobinhood, Interactive Brokers direct
    Rothera (Robinhood/SIG)CFTC-regulated exchangeRobinhood (16% of HOOD event volume)
    CME GroupDCM + DCOFanDuel Predicts, DraftKings Predictions

    A completed Robinhood-CDNA deal would make Robinhood the first major retail prediction-markets hub to simultaneously distribute contracts from four independent CFTC-regulated exchanges. That structure mirrors how full-service brokerages route equity orders across multiple market centers — a model that has consistently produced tighter spreads and better execution quality for retail investors.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is Crypto.com's CDNA? Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA) is the U.S.-regulated subsidiary of Crypto.com that operates a CFTC-designated contract market for event contracts. It also owns and operates OG, a standalone consumer prediction-markets platform that launched in February 2026.

    Does the Crypto.com partnership mean Robinhood is leaving Kalshi? No. Robinhood's discussions with Crypto.com are about adding a new contract source, not replacing Kalshi. Robinhood has said it intends to work with multiple exchanges simultaneously. Kalshi contracts would remain available on the Robinhood platform alongside any future CDNA integration.

    What is Rothera exchange? Rothera is a CFTC-regulated event-contracts exchange created through a joint venture between Robinhood and quantitative trading firm Susquehanna International Group (SIG). The two companies acquired a majority stake in LedgerX — a pre-existing regulated futures exchange — and rebranded it as Rothera. Launched in 2026, Rothera now accounts for 16% of Robinhood's event contract volumes according to Bernstein research.

    Why is Robinhood building a multi-exchange network instead of just using one partner? Multiple exchange partners give Robinhood negotiating leverage on fees, expand the range of event contracts available to its users, and reduce dependency on any single counterparty. As Robinhood's event-contract volumes have grown — reaching $3.9 billion in May 2026 — its bargaining position with exchanges has strengthened. The multi-exchange model also mirrors how stock brokerages route orders through multiple market centers to get best execution.

    When does Robinhood report Q2 2026 earnings? Robinhood is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 29. Prediction-markets revenue is expected to be a key focal point for analysts given the volume growth tied to the FIFA World Cup cycle.

    Conclusion

    The Robinhood-Crypto.com talks are more than a distribution deal in progress. They reflect a deliberate pivot by the country's largest retail prediction-markets hub toward multi-exchange independence — a strategy that simultaneously expands consumer choice, intensifies competition with incumbent exchanges like Kalshi, and gives Robinhood structural leverage it did not have when Kalshi was its sole partner.

    For the prediction-markets industry, the clearest signal is this: distribution is becoming its own competitive moat. Exchanges built their advantages on liquidity and regulatory infrastructure. Robinhood is now building its advantage on reach — and using that reach to negotiate access to every credible exchange simultaneously.

    Explore prediction market odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt in one place at PredictionMarkets.US.

    Sources & Verification

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