The Next Wave of Prediction Market Platforms: Who Just Applied to the NFA
From cable news giants to YC-backed startups, the NFA application queue reveals who is building the next generation of prediction market platforms in America.
The public face of prediction markets in America is a short list: Kalshi, Polymarket, and the major apps that sit on top of them. But there's a quieter signal worth watching — the National Futures Association (NFA) membership database.
When a company wants to legally offer, clear, or broker regulated event contracts in the US, it must register with the NFA — either as a futures commission merchant (FCM) or an introducing broker (IB). FCMs clear trades directly on an exchange. IBs act as storefronts, directing customer order flow to an FCM and its underlying exchange without holding funds themselves. Both roles require NFA registration and ongoing compliance oversight.
The NFA database is a public record, searchable at nfa.futures.org. It doesn't tell you a company's launch date or product roadmap. But it does tell you who's planning to show up — often months before they say anything publicly.
As of April 2026, that database shows an unusually full queue of prediction market applicants. Here's who they are, where they're coming from, and what they're likely building.
Why the NFA Queue Matters Right Now
The surge in applications tracks directly with the regulatory environment. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) published an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on prediction markets in March 2026, inviting public comment through April 30 on how the agency should govern the space long-term. At the same time, the administration has moved to affirm federal — rather than state — authority over event contracts.
The message to potential entrants is clear: the federal framework is being formalized, not reversed. Companies that want a seat at the table are lining up now.
Who's in the Queue
1. Newsmax Markets LLC (Introducing Broker, Pending)
Newsmax, the conservative cable news network, filed for NFA membership as an introducing broker in March 2026. If approved, it would become the first news media company to directly offer regulated prediction market contracts under its own brand.
Newsmax already has an existing relationship with ForecastEx, the CFTC-licensed exchange operated by Interactive Brokers. An NFA IB registration would allow Newsmax Markets to formally route customer order flow to a licensed exchange — most likely ForecastEx — through its own front-end.
NFA Profile: Newsmax Markets LLC
2. New Venture III LLC (FanDuel — FCM Application, Pending)
FanDuel already operates in prediction markets through FanDuel Predicts, its FCM registered in October 2024. New Venture III LLC is a second FanDuel FCM entity filed in April 2026, with principals drawn from FanDuel organizational employees.
A second FCM entity typically signals one of two things: a product expansion, a new infrastructure partner, or both. FanDuel Predicts currently clears through CME Group. A second entity could support a different exchange relationship — or separate sports, political, and entertainment market categories under distinct regulatory structures.
NFA Profile: New Venture III LLC
3. Lumina Markets Inc (Introducing Broker, Pending)
Lumina Markets is one of the more intriguing applicants in the queue. Registration documents and job listings, first reported by Business Insider in February 2026, show strong ties to Interactive Brokers and its billionaire founder, Thomas Peterffy. The company's incorporation paperwork was filed by an in-house Interactive Brokers attorney; its CEO is also an attorney who has worked with both the firm and Peterffy. The NFA application lists Peterffy and Interactive Brokers Vice Chairman Earl Nemser as principals, along with private equity firm Conyers as co-owner.
Lumina's website carries only the tagline "Future, priced," with no product details. But its job listings describe a "trillion-dollar opportunity" and a mission to make prediction markets mainstream — language that suggests a consumer-facing retail product, not an institutional tool.
Interactive Brokers already operates ForecastEx, a CFTC-licensed exchange that currently powers Robinhood event contracts among others. Lumina appears to be pursuing a separate retail brand with a distinct identity — potentially targeting users who find ForecastEx too institutional.
Primary source: Business Insider, February 2, 2026 NFA Profile: Lumina Markets Inc
4. Valence Inc (Introducing Broker, Pending)
Valence is a Y Combinator-backed unified prediction market trading platform. Its NFA application was filed in March 2026, and its YC company page confirms backing from the accelerator along with a product that provides a single interface and API for trading across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com's exchange.
According to the YC listing, over 1 billion contracts have been traded through Valence's platform, and top traders on the Kalshi public leaderboard use the system. The platform is designed for serious, systematic traders rather than casual retail users.
An IB registration would allow Valence to formalize its role in the trading stack — routing customer order flow through compliant channels and potentially onboarding institutional clients who require regulated counterparty relationships.
Primary source: Y Combinator — Valence NFA Profile: Valence Inc
5. Betr Predictions LLC (Introducing Broker, Pending)
Betr Predictions, backed by entertainer Jake Paul, filed for NFA membership in October 2025 with its status still pending as of April 2026. Betr entered the prediction market space through a multi-year partnership with Polymarket, positioning itself as a DFS-adjacent front-end for event contract trading.
An IB registration would formalize Betr's ability to direct customer order flow to a licensed exchange under CFTC regulatory oversight, extending its current Polymarket relationship into fully regulated territory.
NFA Profile: Betr Predictions LLC
6. Omen Derivatives LLC (Introducing Broker, Pending)
Omen Derivatives, likely the entity behind the OmenX leveraged prediction market platform, filed for NFA membership in March 2026. OmenX raised a seed round in March 2026, positioning itself as a prediction market product with leverage mechanics — a distinct category from the standard yes/no binary contracts offered by Kalshi and Polymarket.
NFA Profile: Omen Derivatives LLC
7. Gate Futures LLC (Introducing Broker, Pending)
Gate Futures LLC is the US arm of Gate.io, the global cryptocurrency exchange. Gate filed its NFA application in January 2026 — and it's already taken a significant step into the prediction market space. In March 2026, Gate announced it had become the first centralized exchange (CEX) to integrate Polymarket directly into its trading app, allowing users to access global Polymarket markets using their Gate account balances.
The integration rolled out in public beta in version 8.12.5 of the Gate app, enabling users to trade yes/no contracts on sports, finance, and crypto events without requiring a separate Web3 wallet.
An NFA IB registration for Gate Futures would allow Gate to extend its prediction market offering to US-regulated event contracts — adding exchange-regulated products to the global Polymarket integration already live on the platform.
Primary source: Gate Official Announcement, March 24, 2026 NFA Profile: Gate Futures LLC
8. tZero Introducing Broker LLC (Introducing Broker, Pending)
tZero Introducing Broker LLC filed for NFA membership in January 2026. tZero is a digital securities and blockchain trading infrastructure company. Its entry into prediction markets as an introducing broker signals that established fintech players — not just DFS operators and media brands — are looking at event contracts as part of a broader regulated trading product mix.
NFA Profile: tZero Introducing Broker LLC
9. Onyx Predictions LLC (Introducing Broker, Pending)
Onyx Predictions LLC, the entity behind TSOS Technologies' prediction market product (also known as Onyx Odds), filed for NFA membership in February 2026. Onyx Odds currently operates a free-to-play prediction market game. NFA approval would open the path to offering real-money regulated contracts.
NFA Profile: Onyx Predictions LLC
The Pattern Underneath
Looking at the full applicant list, a few things stand out:
The infrastructure is concentrating. Most of these applicants are likely to route their customers to one of a small number of underlying exchanges: Kalshi, ForecastEx (Interactive Brokers), Crypto.com's CDNA exchange, or Polymarket via QCX LLC. The exchange tier is already set. The competition is happening at the distribution layer.
The sources of new entrants have diversified. The first wave of prediction market apps came almost entirely from DFS and sportsbook companies. This wave includes a cable news network (Newsmax), a YC-backed trading infrastructure startup (Valence), an entertainment company (Betr), a global crypto exchange (Gate.io), a digital securities firm (tZero), and an Interactive Brokers-affiliated retail brand (Lumina). That's a much broader range of business models.
NFA registration is a signal, not a launch. Companies appear in this queue months before products go live — and not all applications result in approved registrations. But the applications themselves are a commitment: regulatory filings require legal work, compliance infrastructure, and a principal who takes on regulatory responsibility. Companies file when they're serious.
What This Means for Users
If you're currently using Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel Predicts, or another established platform, none of these pending registrations change anything today. But the breadth of the applicant pool matters for longer-term users in two ways:
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More distribution options. As more platforms receive NFA approval, users will have more front-ends and discovery surfaces for the same underlying event contracts. That's generally good for market access — and for competition that drives product improvement.
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The regulated space is legitimizing. When a cable news network, a Y Combinator startup, and a global crypto exchange all file in the same month, the signal is that the regulated CFTC event contract market has arrived. The speculative phase is over; the build phase is underway.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's the difference between an FCM and an introducing broker? A futures commission merchant (FCM) holds customer funds and clears trades directly. An introducing broker (IB) connects customers to an FCM but doesn't hold funds. Most consumer-facing prediction market apps operate as FCMs (Robinhood Derivatives, FanDuel Predictions) or route through them. Introducing brokers are typically lighter-touch front-ends or distribution partners.
Does NFA pending status mean a platform can operate? No. Pending means the application is under review. Companies cannot legally solicit or accept US customers for regulated event contracts until the NFA grants approval.
When will these platforms launch? NFA doesn't publish expected approval timelines. Some applications take weeks; others take months, depending on the complexity of the registration and the applicant's compliance history. Watch the NFA Basic database for status changes from "Pending" to "Registered."
Can I trade on any of these platforms now? None of the pending applicants listed above are approved to offer regulated US event contracts as of April 2026. Gate.io's current Polymarket integration gives global access to Polymarket's markets, but US-accessible regulated event contracts require a separate approval process.
Conclusion
The NFA application queue is one of the best forward-looking signals for what prediction markets will look like six to twelve months from now. The current batch — spanning media, fintech, DFS, crypto, and institutional trading — tells a clear story: the regulated event contract market has become attractive enough to draw an entirely new category of entrant.
The exchange infrastructure is mostly built. The next fight is over who owns the front door.
Sources & Verification
- NFA registration framework: nfa.futures.org — Registration FAQs — verified April 14, 2026
- Newsmax Markets LLC NFA profile: NFA Basic — verified April 14, 2026
- New Venture III LLC (FanDuel) NFA profile: NFA Basic — verified April 14, 2026
- Lumina Markets Inc NFA profile: NFA Basic — verified April 14, 2026
- Lumina/Interactive Brokers ties: Business Insider, February 2, 2026 — verified April 14, 2026
- Valence NFA profile: NFA Basic — verified April 14, 2026
- Valence YC backing: Y Combinator company page — verified April 14, 2026
- Betr Predictions NFA profile: NFA Basic — verified April 14, 2026
- Omen Derivatives NFA profile: NFA Basic — verified April 14, 2026
- Gate Futures LLC NFA profile: NFA Basic — verified April 14, 2026
- Gate.io first CEX to integrate Polymarket: Gate official announcement, March 24, 2026 — verified April 14, 2026
- tZero IB LLC NFA profile: NFA Basic — verified April 14, 2026
- Onyx Predictions NFA profile: NFA Basic — verified April 14, 2026
- CFTC ANPRM on prediction markets: Federal Register, March 16, 2026 — verified April 14, 2026