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    Maryland Becomes the Fourth State in 30 Days to Ban Prediction Market Insider Trading

    Maryland Gov. Moore signed the fourth state executive order in 30 days banning prediction market insider trading, as California, Illinois, and New York formed a growing coalition. Here's what the pattern means.

    By PredictionMarkets.usTuesday, April 28, 20269 min read

    When Maryland Governor Wes Moore signed Executive Order 01.01.2026.09 on the evening of April 24, 2026, he did more than restrict his own administration's prediction market activity. He broke a threshold that political observers had been watching for weeks: four states, four executive orders, thirty days.

    The governor made his announcement live, during a taping of HBO's Real Time with Bill Maher — a setting that matched the political drama of the moment. "We just signed an executive order banning anyone in Maryland state government from doing any type of predictions market," Moore said, drawing applause. He went further, walking through the conflict-of-interest math in real terms: with a 97% reelection probability priced into prediction markets despite his own 57% approval rating, "What's to stop me from placing a $250,000 bet that I won't win reelection and then tanking the race?"

    Nothing in law, he argued. And that was the problem.

    Maryland's order is the fourth in a 30-day wave of state executive action aimed at the same target: government employees using inside information to trade on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. California started the sequence in late March. Illinois followed in late April. New York a day later. Maryland closed the quartet within 72 hours of New York — at which point all four governors had issued orders with nearly identical language, nearly identical scope, and nearly identical political framing.

    That degree of coordination, whether formal or informal, signals something important: this is no longer a collection of isolated state reactions. It is the early architecture of a governing consensus.

    What Maryland's Executive Order Does

    Executive Order 01.01.2026.09, which took effect immediately upon signing and is publicly available through governor.maryland.gov, prohibits executive branch employees, contractors, appointees to boards and commissions, and Moore himself and Lt. Governor Aruna Miller from engaging in financial transactions on prediction markets using nonpublic government information obtained through their State employment.

    Under the order, covered individuals are prohibited from using "nonpublic government information obtained through their State employment or contractual relationship with the State, to benefit themselves financially or to further any private interest." It extends reporting requirements to agency counsel and the Governor's Chief Legal Counsel. Violations can result in immediate termination for employees and contractors.

    The order builds directly on Executive Order 01.01.2023.05, which Moore signed on his first day in office in January 2023 establishing high standards of integrity and honesty for state employees. The new EO adds specific prediction market language to those existing standards.

    Moore's office cited two catalysts: a U.S. Army special forces soldier charged with using classified information about the forthcoming Maduro operation in Venezuela to earn more than $400,000 on Polymarket, and reporting about multiple "perfectly timed" bets placed hours before major federal announcements, including strikes on Iran.

    "The citizens of Maryland deserve a government where State business is conducted truthfully and honestly, free from the existence or perception of any corruption or misconduct," Moore said in the order's text.

    The Four-State Coalition: A 30-Day Timeline

    StateGovernorOrderDateScope
    CaliforniaNewsomExecutive OrderMarch 27, 2026Gubernatorial appointees + family members/partners
    IllinoisPritzkerEO 2026-04April 21, 2026All state employees, officers, appointees, board members
    New YorkHochulEO 60April 22, 2026State officers and employees
    MarylandMooreEO 01.01.2026.09April 24, 2026Executive branch employees, contractors, Moore + Lt. Gov.

    California Governor Gavin Newsom was first, signing his executive order on March 27, 2026 and framing it as a direct contrast with federal inaction. "Public service should not be a get-rich-quick scheme," Newsom said. "At a time when Trump's Washington is riddled with ethical failures and insider profiteering, California is drawing a bright line: If you serve the public as a political appointee, you serve the public — period." The order barred gubernatorial appointees from using nonpublic information to profit personally or assist family members, spouses, children, or business partners in profiting off predictive markets, according to a press release from the California Governor's office.

    Illinois followed with Executive Order 2026-04 on April 21, 2026. Governor JB Pritzker issued one of the broadest orders in scope, covering all state employees, officers, appointees, and board members of state agencies within the Executive Branch — not just the governor's circle. "Prediction markets have rapidly grown into a space where people can bet on real-world events without any oversight, including events people can influence," Pritzker said. "This opens the door to insider trading and abuse of confidential information." His press release also noted that Illinois law already prohibited confidential information use for personal gain, but said the executive order specifically named prediction market activity to remove any legal ambiguity.

    New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed Executive Order 60 on April 22, 2026, just one day after Illinois — the pace itself sending a message. "Getting rich by betting on inside information is corruption, plain and simple," Hochul said in a statement reported by PIX11. "Our actions will ensure that public servants work for the people they represent, not their own personal enrichment. While Donald Trump and DC Republicans turn a blind eye to the ethical Wild West they've created, New York is stepping up to lead by example and stamp out insider trading." The same day, the New York Attorney General filed suit against Coinbase and Gemini over prediction market licensing, signaling a coordinated multi-front approach.

    Maryland's arrival two days later completed the sequence. Four orders in 28 days. All from Democratic governors. All citing the same underlying cases.

    The Template Language Signal

    Analysts of state legislation often look for "template language" — identical or near-identical phrasing across multiple states' laws or executive orders that indicates coordination, either through formal networks like the National Governors Association or through informal communication between political staff.

    The four prediction market executive orders display it clearly.

    Every order uses some variation of "nonpublic information." Every order explicitly covers assisting others — not just direct personal trading. Every order cites the Venezuela/Maduro case and the Iran strike betting patterns as the triggering concern. The political framing ("while the Trump administration...") is essentially interchangeable.

    That kind of consistency does not happen by accident at the pace of one order every three to four days. It suggests this is not four governors independently arriving at the same conclusion. It is four governors moving in formation — and likely watching the same watch-list of states for who comes next.

    The next wave of states to watch, per political observers tracking the pattern: New Jersey (Governor Murphy), Massachusetts (Governor Healey), Michigan (Governor Whitmer), and Washington state.

    The Backdrop: Why Governors Are Acting Now

    The prediction market insider trading concern became politically salient through a series of well-documented cases in early 2026.

    The most concrete was the January 2026 case of U.S. Army Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was charged in April 2026 by the Department of Justice and CFTC with using classified military information to place bets on Polymarket in the hours before the announced U.S. operation against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Van Dyke allegedly earned approximately $409,881, according to CFTC and DOJ press releases.

    Separately, reporting by Reuters, Bloomberg, and others documented more than $1 billion in well-timed bets surrounding U.S. military activity in Iran — positions that generated significant profits for anonymous traders ahead of publicly announced strike timing.

    These cases gave governors a concrete, prosecutable example to point to — and a defensible basis for executive action that predated any statutory requirement to act.

    The Senate Is Watching Too

    Governor-level action has a ceiling. Executive orders bind state employees, not federal officials. They have no enforcement mechanism against prediction market platforms themselves. They are ethics directives, not licensing laws.

    That has not been lost on Congress.

    On April 24, 2026, Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH) introduced a Senate resolution — referenced in the full text published at moreno.senate.gov — that would amend Rule XXXVII of the Standing Rules of the Senate to prohibit senators from entering into any "agreement, contract, or transaction that provides for any purchase, sale, payment, or delivery that is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of a specific event." In plain terms: senators could no longer trade on prediction markets at all.

    "Any Senator who came to DC to cash in, game prediction markets, or treat public office like a side hustle is betraying the oath they swore to their country," Moreno said in a statement. He called for the resolution to pass unanimously.

    The notable element is who introduced it. Moreno is a Republican from Ohio — a Trump-aligned freshman senator who has generally been supportive of federal prediction market regulation over state-level interference. His resolution is not an attack on the industry. It is a narrow, targeted conflict-of-interest measure that sidesteps the broader state-vs-federal regulatory battles entirely.

    That narrow focus may be its strategic advantage. A Senate rule change prohibiting senators from personally trading does not require a position on whether Kalshi is gambling or a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange. It only requires agreement that senators should not personally profit from outcomes they help determine.

    Politico reported that Senator Todd Young (R-IN), who has introduced separate bipartisan legislation to bar the president, congressional staffers, and senior executive officials from prediction market trading, welcomed the Moreno move: "I'm glad to see more people taking these insider trading concerns seriously."

    What This Means for Prediction Market Users

    For everyday users on Kalshi and Polymarket, the four executive orders change nothing about how these platforms operate. The orders restrict state employees — they are not platform bans, licensing revocations, or enforcement actions against the exchanges themselves.

    Kalshi operates as a CFTC-designated contract market (DCM). Its markets remain open to eligible users in states where the platform operates. Kalshi has publicly stated that insider trading violates its rules: "Government employees should be aware that trading on federally regulated markets using material non-public information violates the law."

    Polymarket's U.S. platform (operated by QCX LLC, a CFTC-licensed exchange) is currently limited to sports markets for U.S. users. If you are a U.S. user, you access Polymarket's U.S. sports venue — not the global polymarket.com, which remains geo-restricted for U.S. residents. The executive orders apply equally to any prediction market platform, but the U.S./global distinction matters for understanding which markets you can access.

    The real significance of the governor coalition is institutional. It signals that the policy window for prediction market regulation — at both the state and federal level — is widening. Restrictions that affect only state employees today could expand to broader licensing requirements or platform-level regulations if Congress acts on the growing stack of bipartisan legislation.

    What's Next

    Several developments to track in the coming weeks:

    • State expansion: Governors in New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Washington are on the watch-list for potential executive orders based on the current coalition trajectory.
    • Moreno Senate resolution: The resolution's progress through the Senate Rules Committee — and whether it attracts bipartisan co-sponsors — will indicate whether Congressional self-regulation has real momentum.
    • CFTC ANPRM comment period: The CFTC's advance notice of proposed rulemaking on prediction markets closes April 30. The public and industry response may shape federal regulatory posture in 2026.
    • State litigation: The CFTC has filed suit against New York, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and other states asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction market platforms. The outcome of those suits will determine how much room states have to act beyond executive orders.

    The four-state executive order coalition is the most visible sign yet that prediction markets have moved from a niche regulatory question to a mainstream political issue. For an industry that largely operated outside state-level scrutiny two years ago, the speed of this shift is significant.

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