Regulation

    Kalshi Formally Blocks India — What the 55-Country Restricted List Reveals About Prediction Markets' Global Reach

    Kalshi's updated member agreement adds India to a 55+ country restricted list after India's new online gaming law bans prediction markets. The move exposes a growing paradox: US expansion running concurrent with global regulatory contraction.

    By Prediction Markets US News DeskTuesday, June 23, 20265 min read
    Kalshi Formally Blocks India — What the 55-Country Restricted List Reveals About Prediction Markets' Global Reach

    The Agreement Change Nobody Announced

    On June 17, 2026, Kalshi quietly updated its member agreement. Buried in the updated terms: India now appears on the platform's list of "Restricted Jurisdictions," meaning users domiciled in, organized in, or located in India are prohibited from trading event contracts on the platform.

    Kalshi made no press release. The change surfaced Monday when Bloomberg, the Economic Times, and NDTV Profit reported the update simultaneously — six days after the agreement was revised. Bloomberg, June 23, 2026

    For one of the world's largest prediction market platforms, formalizing the exclusion of 1.4 billion people is not a minor footnote. It is a significant marker of where regulated prediction markets can and cannot operate in 2026.

    The Law That Made It Happen

    India's Parliament passed the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act (PROGA) in 2025. The rules took effect on May 1, 2026. The law bans "online money games" — a category that Indian regulators explicitly extended to cover prediction markets, which they classified as a form of digital gambling.

    Enforcement moved quickly after the law took effect:

    • Late May 2026: Kalshi's website became inaccessible through multiple internet service providers across India, as the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) ordered ISP-level blocks. Polymarket was similarly blocked around May 21, 2026.
    • April 25, 2026: MeitY sent Kalshi a formal warning letter stating that Indian users were continuing to access the platform in violation of government directives.
    • April 2026: MeitY wrote to virtual private network (VPN) providers warning that enabling access to blocked prediction market platforms could expose VPN operators to legal liability.
    • June 17, 2026: Kalshi updated its member agreement to formally designate India as a restricted jurisdiction. Economic Times, June 23, 2026

    The agreement is careful in its scope. The restriction applies "solely to the trading of Event Contracts" and does not automatically bar users from maintaining an account or accessing non-trading functions. Kalshi also reserves discretion to grant or deny access on a case-by-case basis.

    Why India Mattered — and Why the Ban Stings

    India was not just any market for Kalshi. The platform had publicly named India as a priority target in its broader international expansion plan, which aimed to reach 140 countries and cited cricket's digitally native fan base as a natural fit for prediction market mechanics. NDTV Profit, June 23, 2026

    Cricket-driven event contracts — will India win the Test match, which player scores first, what will the total runs be — represent exactly the type of market Kalshi has expanded into. India's cricket audience is among the world's most engaged sports-betting demographics. That demand does not disappear because a regulator bans it. It relocates.

    The 55-Jurisdiction Map

    India joins a restricted list that, per Kalshi's updated member agreement, now exceeds 55 countries. The list spans multiple tiers:

    • Sanctioned states under US Treasury OFAC rules (Iran, North Korea, Russia, Cuba, Syria)
    • Countries that have banned prediction markets through active regulatory action, including India
    • Countries with operating licensing regimes that conflict with Kalshi's CFTC-only regulatory model, including the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Singapore, and France
    • Countries with broader digital finance restrictions, including China

    The scale of the list reflects a structural reality: Kalshi operates under a CFTC Designated Contract Market designation, which is a US federal license. CFTC approval means nothing to Indian regulators applying Indian law, Australian regulators applying Australian law, or French regulators applying EU law. Each jurisdiction controls its own on-ramp.

    In 2026 alone, more than ten countries have moved to restrict or formally ban Kalshi, Polymarket, or both, according to Bloomberg's reporting. The pace of international regulatory tightening is accelerating even as Kalshi's US operations reach record volume — the platform reported approximately $17.9 billion in volume in May 2026 and a $22 billion valuation as of March 2026.

    What Displaced Indian Demand Looks Like

    India's enforcement has not eliminated demand. It has rerouted it.

    Polymarket, which operates its global exchange on the Polygon blockchain and does not require fiat on-ramps, has not geoblocked India at the platform level. Indian users who want access are using VPNs and DNS bypasses to reach the site, then purchasing USDC on Indian cryptocurrency exchanges using UPI or bank transfers and bridging funds to Polymarket via Polygon. [NDTV Profit, June 23, 2026]

    That pathway runs through multiple friction points: India's 30% flat tax on cryptocurrency gains (with no loss offsets) and a 1% TDS on crypto transactions. MeitY's April warning to VPN providers signals that this grey corridor is itself under pressure.

    The result is a familiar pattern: prohibition at home redirecting activity to blockchain rails, where stablecoins and DeFi infrastructure become the default plumbing for demand the formal system refuses to serve.

    The Paradox: US Expansion, Global Contraction

    Kalshi's global situation in mid-2026 presents a striking contrast:

    • In the US: Kalshi holds its CFTC DCM + DCO designation, operates in 42 US states, has expanded into perpetual futures contracts on Bitcoin, and is conducting pre-IPO conversations while reporting $2 billion in annual revenue.
    • Internationally: The platform's restricted jurisdiction list has grown to 55+ countries. Regulatory fragmentation is accelerating, with India joining the EU, UK, Canada, and Australia in blocking access.

    This is not a tension Kalshi can resolve through compliance engineering. The US CFTC framework that makes Kalshi legal under federal law offers no shelter in countries that have enacted their own laws. Every jurisdiction that bans prediction markets does so under its own statutory authority, independent of what the CFTC has approved.

    The question of whether the CFTC's model becomes a template other countries adopt — or whether prediction markets remain a US-and-Gibraltar story while most of the world bans them — may be the most consequential long-term question for the sector.

    What to Watch

    • India's VPN enforcement: MeitY has warned VPN providers but enforcement remains complex. If India follows through with VPN provider penalties, access to both Kalshi and Polymarket will become significantly harder.
    • PROGA review: India's online gaming industry has already challenged PROGA in court. If the law is amended to create a licensed path for derivatives-style event contracts, India could eventually become an addressable market again.
    • The CFTC framework's international resonance: The US regulatory architecture is the most clearly defined in the world for prediction markets. Whether other jurisdictions look to the CFTC model as a template — or view it as validation that prediction markets require their own national frameworks — will determine how the global map evolves.
    • Kalshi's IPO timeline: With a $2B annual revenue figure and pre-IPO conversations reported, a restricted jurisdiction list exceeding 55 countries will appear in any prospectus as a material risk factor. How investors price geographic contraction alongside US expansion is an open question.

    US Access Notes

    Kalshi is available to US users in 42 states and is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO). Sports event contracts, politics markets, and financial event contracts are offered on the platform.

    Polymarket operates its US exchange through QCX LLC, which holds its own CFTC DCM designation dated July 9, 2025. Polymarket US (QCX LLC) currently offers sports event contracts only to US users. Global Polymarket (polymarket.com) is not accessible to US users through the regulated US app.

    Both platforms are fully accessible to US users through their regulated channels. The India ban and the broader restricted jurisdiction list do not affect US access.

    Sources & Verification

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