Regulation

    House Bill Would Ban Sports Prediction Markets Nationwide — What Traders Need to Know

    Reps. Horsford and Amodei introduced HR 9856, the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, creating a bicameral push to ban sports and casino-style contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket. Here's what the bill says, who backs it, and what it means for traders.

    By Prediction Markets US News DeskFriday, July 24, 20269 min read
    House Bill Would Ban Sports Prediction Markets Nationwide — What Traders Need to Know

    Two Nevada lawmakers introduced federal legislation Thursday that would bar Kalshi, Polymarket, and every other CFTC-regulated prediction market from offering sports and casino-style event contracts — the broadest congressional challenge yet to the fast-growing industry. Here is what the bill says, who is behind it, and what it could mean for the millions of Americans who trade on these platforms.

    What the Bill Says

    Reps. Steven Horsford (D-NV) and Mark Amodei (R-NV) introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act on July 23, 2026, as House Resolution 9856. The bill would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit federally registered prediction market exchanges from listing or trading sports event contracts and casino-style game contracts.

    The bill defines "casino-style game" broadly — covering slot machines, video poker, blackjack, roulette, craps, bingo, lottery, and any simulation of those games. "Sporting event or athletic competition" is also specifically defined to close definitional workarounds.

    "This is about protecting jobs, protecting consumers, and protecting the integrity of our gaming industry," Rep. Horsford said in the bill's official press release. "Nevada has always been the gold standard for gaming regulations. These companies are exploiting a federal loophole that allows them to effectively sidestep state oversight that every other legal sportsbook must follow."

    Rep. Amodei, a Republican co-sponsor, framed the legislation as a states' rights issue: "Gaming policy has long been the responsibility of states and tribes, not unelected federal regulators. This bipartisan bill closes a federal loophole that allows sports betting to masquerade as financial trading and ensures legitimate event contracts remain under the CFTC's jurisdiction."

    The bill has been referred to the House Committee on Agriculture — the same committee that held a hearing on sports event contracts just days before the bill's introduction.

    What It Would Leave Alone

    The legislation is surgical in one important respect: it explicitly preserves bona fide hedging contracts under CFTC oversight. Weather contracts, economic indicator markets, and similar instruments would remain untouched.

    Backers use the example of a Los Angeles ice cream shop owner who used weather event contracts to offset business losses during cold weather. That kind of commercial hedging stays legal under the proposal. A wager on which team wins the Super Bowl, the backers argue, does not become a financial product simply because it is offered through a trading app.

    The bill also includes explicit language affirming that nothing in federal law preempts state or tribal authority over gaming — a direct answer to the CFTC's preemption arguments in its ongoing litigation against Nevada, Minnesota, and other states.

    Live market — will a law banning sports prediction markets be enacted in 2026?

    What the Markets Are Pricing

    Who Is Backing the Push — and Why Nevada?

    The bill has assembled an unusual coalition of labor unions and the casino industry establishment.

    The American Gaming Association, the leading trade group for commercial casinos, immediately endorsed the legislation. "The AGA applauds Representatives Horsford and Amodei for introducing the companion legislation to Senators Schiff and Curtis," said AGA CEO and President Bill Miller. "Together, these bills represent a bipartisan and bicameral effort to protect consumers, uphold state and tribal authority on regulating gaming, and stop so-called 'prediction markets' from offering backdoor sports betting that is siphoning billions of dollars in tax revenue from local communities across America."

    UNITE HERE, the union representing more than 100,000 workers in tribal and commercial casinos nationwide, also endorsed the bill. "Prediction market gambling is threatening the livelihoods of over 100,000 UNITE HERE members who work in Tribal and commercial casinos across the country," said Gwen Mills, UNITE HERE President.

    The Culinary Workers Union Local 226 — the largest union in Nevada with roughly 60,000 members at casino resorts in Las Vegas and Reno — quickly added its backing. Secretary-treasurer Ted Pappageorge called prediction markets "running illegal sports betting across the country, putting hospitality jobs at risk."

    The economic concern is concrete. Nevada imposes a 6.75% tax on all sportsbook wagers. Prediction market platforms, regulated federally by the CFTC rather than state gaming authorities, pay no such tax. Rep. Horsford has claimed the platforms have cost states more than $1 billion in lost gaming tax revenue.

    A Bipartisan, Bicameral Effort

    HR 9856 is the House companion to a Senate bill introduced in March 2026 by Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT), with Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) as a co-sponsor. The Senate bill is SB 4160.

    With both chambers now carrying identical legislation and bipartisan support in each, the effort has cleared a significant organizational threshold. Few bills reach bicameral introduction with this degree of alignment across party lines.

    However, the Senate bill has made no progress since it was referred to the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry in March. Congress is also preparing for its summer recess, meaning any committee action is unlikely in the near term.

    "Sports prediction contracts are sports bets — just with a different name," Sen. Schiff said. "And yet, these contracts have been offered in all fifty states in clear violation of state and federal law. Rather than enforce the law, the CFTC is greenlighting these markets and even promoting their growth. It's time for Congress to step in."

    Sen. Curtis added a consumer protection dimension: "Too many young people in Utah are getting exposed to addictive sports betting and casino-style gaming contracts that belong under state control, not under federal regulators."

    The Broader Regulatory Battlefield

    The House bill lands in the middle of one of the most chaotic regulatory environments in recent U.S. financial history.

    The CFTC, under Chairman Brian Quintenz — later Mike Selig — has consistently defended its exclusive authority over prediction market platforms. The agency has sued multiple states — including Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arizona, and Nevada — that attempted to restrict platform operations through state gaming law. The CFTC's position is that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming authority when a federally licensed designated contract market is involved.

    Courts have been divided. The Third Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a preliminary injunction blocking New Jersey's enforcement effort against Kalshi in April 2026. But a federal judge in New York found in July 2026 that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt state gambling law as applied to sports contracts — a ruling Kalshi has appealed to the Second Circuit.

    Minnesota became the first state to enact a full ban on May 18, 2026, making it a felony to host, advertise, or provide services for platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket. The law takes effect August 1. The CFTC has sued to block it.

    Nevada's courts have largely sided with state gaming regulators. A preliminary injunction blocking Kalshi operations in Nevada has been in place; a similar injunction was issued against Polymarket's operations in the state on July 21, 2026.

    North Carolina took a different approach entirely: on July 7, 2026, Gov. Josh Stein signed SB 257, which explicitly recognizes the CFTC's exclusive regulatory authority over prediction markets but simultaneously imposes a 6% tax on net trading fee revenue starting January 1, 2027 — a tax-without-ban model that has attracted attention as a possible middle path.

    The Horsford-Amodei bill would resolve the federal-state dispute by taking the decision out of the CFTC's hands entirely — codifying the sports ban in statute and ending the reliance on agency rulemaking and federal court fights.

    What Are the Odds This Passes?

    Prediction markets themselves offer some signal on the broader regulatory trajectory. Markets tracking whether a law banning sports prediction markets will be enacted in 2026 can be followed in real time on PredictionMarkets.US.

    On the legislative path specifically: the Senate companion bill has sat in committee since March without advancement, and the House bill faces similar committee dynamics. Congress is heading into summer recess with neither chamber's Agriculture committee having scheduled a markup. Legal Sports Report noted the timing challenge when covering the bill's introduction.

    The political calculus is also complicated. The Trump administration has taken a generally permissive stance toward prediction markets — it ended a Department of Justice probe into the industry and has not moved to restrict CFTC authority over these platforms. Getting Republican Senate votes for a bill that constrains a growth industry in a regulatory-friendly environment is a meaningful hurdle.

    Still, the bill's bipartisan and bicameral architecture matters. It signals that opposition to sports prediction markets is not simply a gaming-state parochialism but a durable cross-partisan concern. The House Agriculture hearing this week produced pointed questioning from members of both parties about the adequacy of CFTC oversight for sports-style contracts.

    What This Means for Prediction Market Traders

    For active users of Kalshi, Polymarket, and similar platforms, the bill's immediate practical impact is zero — it would need to pass both chambers, survive any court challenges, and be signed into law. None of that is imminent.

    What matters in the short run is the signal. The prediction market industry grew rapidly during and after the 2026 World Cup — Kalshi reported adding 3 million new users in a single month, according to reporting cited in congressional testimony. A Pew Research Center analysis found that dollars traded on prediction markets surpassed dollars wagered at sportsbooks, with combined monthly global trading volume reaching roughly $24 billion in April 2026.

    Sports contracts are central to that growth. For some prediction market businesses, sports trading can represent up to 90% of platform volume. A congressional ban on sports contracts would not merely clip the industry's growth — it would remove its largest revenue category.

    The bicameral Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act raises the probability that the regulatory status quo — CFTC authority, sports contracts legal, states largely blocked from restricting them — faces a genuine legislative challenge in the next congressional session even if the current bills stall.

    For traders with active positions in sports markets, the practical advice is the same it has always been: stay current on the legal status in your state, because the state-by-state picture is shifting faster than any single article can track.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act? HR 9856 is a House bill introduced July 23, 2026 by Reps. Steven Horsford (D-NV) and Mark Amodei (R-NV). It would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to ban federally registered prediction market exchanges from listing sports event contracts and casino-style game contracts. A Senate companion bill (SB 4160) was introduced in March 2026.

    Would the bill shut down Kalshi and Polymarket entirely? No. The bill targets sports and casino-style contracts specifically. Weather contracts, economic indicator markets, and other bona fide hedging instruments would remain legal under CFTC oversight. However, sports contracts represent the majority of trading volume for many prediction market platforms, so the economic impact would be substantial.

    What is the status of the bill? HR 9856 was referred to the House Committee on Agriculture after introduction. Congress is heading into summer recess, so committee action is not expected immediately. The Senate companion has been in committee since March without advancement.

    Why is Nevada leading this effort? Nevada has the most established commercial gaming industry in the United States, with a 6.75% state tax on sportsbook wagers. Prediction markets operating under federal CFTC regulation pay no such tax. Nevada gaming regulators have also been among the most aggressive state enforcers, securing court orders blocking Kalshi and Polymarket operations in the state.

    How does this bill relate to the CFTC's ongoing rules? The CFTC proposed a rule in June 2026 that could formalize sports event contracts nationwide. The Horsford-Amodei bill would supersede that rulemaking by addressing the issue directly in statute — removing the CFTC's discretion to permit sports contracts regardless of any rule it might finalize.

    Conclusion

    The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act now has bicameral sponsorship, bipartisan cosponsors in both chambers, and the support of the casino industry's largest trade association and two of the country's biggest labor unions. Whether it advances through the legislative calendar is uncertain — Congress is heading into recess, the Senate companion has sat in committee since March, and the administration has shown little appetite for restricting prediction markets.

    But the introduction of HR 9856 matters beyond its immediate prospects. It demonstrates that the sports prediction market debate is no longer a state-versus-CFTC litigation story. It is now a congressional story — one that will shape the legal framework around prediction markets for years. Traders and platforms alike need to follow it closely.

    Track the latest odds on prediction market regulation at PredictionMarkets.US.

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