Markets

    What $197 Million in Midterm Bets Is Telling You About November 2026

    NBC News analyzed 1,408 open markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. The crowd is calling Democrats to flip both chambers. Here's what the numbers actually mean.

    By Prediction Markets US News DeskSaturday, July 18, 20268 min read
    What $197 Million in Midterm Bets Is Telling You About November 2026

    Prediction market traders have placed over $197 million on 2026 midterm election outcomes — and the crowd has a clear message: Democrats are heavy favorites to flip both chambers of Congress.

    That figure comes from an NBC News analysis published Friday, July 11, which examined 1,408 open markets on Kalshi and Polymarket covering the November elections. The story was picked up by The Hill on Monday and syndicated across a dozen major outlets — a signal of just how much mainstream attention the now-$22 billion prediction market industry has attracted in an election year.

    But the dollar figure is almost beside the point. What matters is what those bets are actually saying.

    Live market view — track these prices yourself:

    What the Markets Are Calling

    As of Sunday evening, July 12, Kalshi's most-traded midterm market showed three meaningful outcomes:

    ScenarioKalshi Probability
    Democrats win both Senate and House46%
    Republicans win Senate, Democrats win House38%
    Republicans hold both chambers17%

    Source: NBC News/The Hill analysis, July 13, 2026, citing Kalshi data as of July 12. Prices fluctuate; check Kalshi for live odds.

    The crowd is essentially saying: a Democratic wave is the most likely single scenario, but a split Congress — with Democrats winning back the House while Republicans hold the Senate — remains nearly as probable. The scenario where Republicans run the table and hold both chambers? The market puts it at just 17%.

    That's a striking read on the political landscape 16 weeks before Election Day.

    Why $197 Million Matters for the Industry

    Four years ago, election prediction markets were a niche interest. On the eve of the 2024 presidential election, Fortune reported that Polymarket users alone wagered $3.2 billion on the Trump-Harris contest — the largest single prediction market event in history.

    The midterms have historically attracted far less attention. Congressional races are harder to track, the outcomes are more diffuse, and the drama is spread across 35 Senate seats and 435 House races rather than one presidential contest. That $197 million figure, spread across 1,408 open markets, reflects both the industry's growth since 2024 and the enormous complexity of betting on Congress as a whole.

    For context: NBC News found those 1,408 markets active across Kalshi and Polymarket combined. That depth of market coverage — individual House races in Iowa, Senate seats in Ohio and Arizona, state-level tossups — simply didn't exist two election cycles ago.

    "On both platforms, users can bet on a variety of topics, including sports, global events and political elections," The Hill noted, though there is a key distinction worth understanding (see below).

    Who's Trading What

    Kalshi, the CFTC-designated contract market based in New York, has emerged as the primary venue for US-accessible election markets. As a federally regulated exchange, Kalshi is legally permitted to offer political event contracts to US customers.

    Kalshi's midterm book spans aggregate Senate control markets, House control markets, and individual race contracts for competitive seats. Volume has been climbing since late spring as races clarified — primaries have now concluded in most states.

    Polymarket and the US Access Distinction

    Polymarket, the other platform cited in the NBC News analysis, has a critical structural split that readers need to understand.

    Polymarket's US entity — QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US — is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. But QCX LLC is currently authorized for sports event contracts only. US users trading through the Polymarket US app or website cannot access political or election markets through that platform.

    The election markets that appear in Polymarket's volume data are on the global Polymarket platform (polymarket.com), which is not accessible to US users due to US regulatory restrictions. International traders drive a significant share of Polymarket's political volume.

    This distinction matters when interpreting the $197 million headline: Kalshi accounts for the US election trading. Polymarket's election numbers represent global (non-US) participation.

    The Insider Trading Shadow

    The $197 million figure lands in a moment when the industry is also grappling with a surge in insider trading cases — a development that mainstream audiences are only now learning about.

    In April 2026, the Department of Justice charged U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified information about a raid on former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to place bets on Polymarket before the operation occurred on January 3, 2026. Van Dyke allegedly made more than $400,000 in profits from those wagers, according to the DOJ press release.

    More recently, federal prosecutors in New York charged a Google employee with using nonpublic data to place bets on the results of the company's internal "Year in Search" list for 2025.

    The Hill noted both cases in the same report as the $197 million analysis — making them part of the same mainstream conversation about election betting.

    A Politico survey conducted by Public First in May found that 44 percent of respondents believe betting on election results should be illegal. Thirty percent said it should be legal; 25 percent didn't know.

    That public ambivalence is part of why North Carolina's July 13 move was significant.

    North Carolina Changes the Map

    On July 13, PYMNTS reported that North Carolina became the first state to formally recognize the CFTC's authority to regulate prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The measure, included in the state budget signed by Governor Josh Stein, explicitly makes it legal for any CFTC-licensed prediction market to operate in North Carolina, citing the "exclusive federal regulatory authority" over event markets established by the Commodity Exchange Act.

    The state did impose a 6% tax on operators' net trading fee revenue attributable to North Carolina residents — but the statute explicitly carries no additional licensing or registration obligations.

    North Carolina's move stands in contrast to a coalition of more than 40 state attorneys general who have argued before the CFTC that sports and political event contracts constitute gambling under state law and should be regulated at the state level. That argument has played out in federal courts across the Third, Ninth, and other circuits throughout 2025 and 2026.

    For now, North Carolina is betting on federal preemption — literally.

    What to Watch Between Now and November

    For traders watching the midterm markets, several variables will move prices between now and Election Day:

    Key Senate battlegrounds: Open seats and competitive races in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin are expected to generate the most market movement. Individual race contracts on Kalshi allow targeted bets on tossup seats.

    Redistricting fallout: Several House maps were redrawn following 2022 and 2023 court orders. Markets for specific competitive House districts in New York, North Carolina, and Texas reflect the shifting geography of House control.

    Generic ballot polling: Prediction markets have historically been sensitive to swings in polling aggregates 60-90 days before an election. As August and September polling clarifies the environment, expect significant price movement in the Senate and House control markets.

    The Iran variable: The ongoing US-Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed as of July 12, adds a geopolitical wildcard that historically affects presidential approval — and by extension, midterm fundamentals. Markets are already pricing some of this uncertainty into their October and November scenario probabilities.

    FAQ

    Can I legally bet on the 2026 midterms in the US? Yes, through Kalshi, which is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market (DCM). Kalshi's election contracts are legally accessible to US customers. ForecastEx (Interactive Brokers) also offers political event contracts. Polymarket's election markets are on the global platform and are not accessible to US users.

    How does Kalshi settle midterm election contracts? Kalshi uses official government sources — certified election results from state and federal officials — as the primary resolution source. In the event of a recount or contested result, Kalshi may extend the resolution window; specific resolution criteria are posted in each contract's terms.

    How accurate are prediction markets at calling elections? Markets outperformed most polling averages in the 2024 presidential election. They are not infallible — the 2024 election itself saw significant position-building in the final week that drew controversy — but a broad consensus across Kalshi, Polymarket, and ForecastEx tends to be informative. The current 46% Dem sweep / 38% split / 17% GOP sweep pricing reflects a market that sees Democratic structural advantages but not a certainty.

    What is the November midterm final settlement date for Kalshi? Settlement timelines vary by contract. Most Senate race contracts settle after each state's official canvassing and certification. The aggregate Senate/House control markets settle after the full Congress is certified. Check individual contract terms on Kalshi for specific dates.

    Can I trade on individual House or Senate races? Kalshi offers both aggregate control markets and individual race contracts for competitive seats. Liquidity is higher on the aggregate markets; individual seat contracts may have wider bid-ask spreads in less-watched races.

    Conclusion

    $197 million in open midterm bets is a milestone — but it's also a fraction of the political volumes this market will see between now and November. As polling clarifies, primary results confirm each party's nominees, and the Iran conflict reshapes the political environment, prediction market prices for Senate and House control will tell a real-time story that no single poll can match.

    The crowd's current read: Democrats are in the driver's seat for a sweep, but a split outcome is nearly as likely. Republicans holding both chambers is a 1-in-6 scenario.

    Whether the crowd is right is, of course, the whole point. That's what markets are for.

    Sources & Verification

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