Beta
    LIVE
    🏛️

    Tarcísio de Freitas

    Volume

    $12.6M

    $15.6K 24h

    Platforms

    2

    Cross-platform pricing

    Resolution

    Resolves Oct 4, 2026

    ~124 days left

    Category

    Politics

    0¢CHANCE OF YES0%100%
    Yes
    0¢
    Polymarket
    No
    100¢
    Kalshi

    Opens on best-price platform

    Compare & Trade

    2 platforms
    PPolymarket
    Best Yes
    Yes
    0¢
    No
    100¢
    Vol
    $12.3M
    $15.6K 24h
    Trade on Polymarket
    KKalshi
    Best No
    Yes
    0¢
    No
    100¢
    Vol
    $218.6K
    Trade on Kalshi

    Price History

    May 27 11:00May 28 15:00May 29 20:00May 31 00:00Jun 1 03:00Jun 2 08:260¢2¢4¢6¢

    About This Market

    If Tarcisio de Frietas has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

    How This Resolves

    KalshiKalshi

    Source: Official government sources (AP, official canvass)

    Rule: Resolves based on AP race call or official certified result, whichever comes first.

    View rule How to verify
    PolymarketPolymarket

    Source: AP or official government declaration

    Rule: Resolves based on AP call or official declaration. Admin review committee handles edge cases.

    View rule How to verify

    Different resolution sources can explain price gaps between platforms. Check both rules before interpreting a spread as an opportunity.

    Market Quality

    Kalshi:Broad consensus
    Poly:Concentrated
    Vol: $2.1M / $8.4M · Largest pos: <4% / ~18%

    Fee Impact at These Prices

    KKalshiat 0¢: exit costs ~0.03¢/contract
    PPolymarketat 0¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract
    Full calculator
    🏛️

    Market Details

    ResolutionResolves Oct 4, 2026
    Time Left124 days
    Status● Active
    CategoryPolitics

    Related reading

    External
    Flavio Bolsonaro draws even with Lula in Brazil election matchup, Datafolha shows • Global South World
    Politics

    Flavio Bolsonaro draws even with Lula in Brazil election matchup, Datafolha shows • Global South World

    1 minUnknown
    Tarcísio expands national alliances and avoids Bolsonaro amid the presidential succession race | Brasil 247
    Politics

    Tarcísio expands national alliances and avoids Bolsonaro amid the presidential succession race | Brasil 247

    1 minRedação Brasil 247
    Tarcísio diz que não há espaço para terceira via e reafirma apoio a quem Bolsonaro indicar para disputar Presidência | G1
    Politics

    Tarcísio diz que não há espaço para terceira via e reafirma apoio a quem Bolsonaro indicar para disputar Presidência | G1

    1 minUnknown
    Lula allies see Tarcísio Freitas as tougher candidate in 2026
    Politics

    Lula allies see Tarcísio Freitas as tougher candidate in 2026

    1 minUnknown
    Tarcísio Reclaims The São Paulo Race As Brazil’s Right
    Politics

    Tarcísio Reclaims The São Paulo Race As Brazil’s Right

    1 minArkady Petrov
    Flavio Bolsonaro enters Brazil’s 2026 presidential race with father’s nod | Elections News | Al Jazeera
    Politics

    Flavio Bolsonaro enters Brazil’s 2026 presidential race with father’s nod | Elections News | Al Jazeera

    1 minAllison Griner
    Tarcísio: Will He or Won't He? - Americas Quarterly
    Politics

    Tarcísio: Will He or Won't He? - Americas Quarterly

    1 minThomas Traumann | November 25, 2025
    Tarcísio: Will He or Won't He? - AS/COA
    Politics

    Tarcísio: Will He or Won't He? - AS/COA

    1 minUnknown

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