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    Michelle Bolsonaro

    Volume

    $7.1M

    $61.4K 24h

    Platforms

    2

    Cross-platform pricing

    Resolution

    Resolves Oct 4, 2026

    ~124 days left

    Category

    Politics

    1¢CHANCE OF YES1%99%
    Yes
    1¢
    Polymarket
    No
    99¢
    Kalshi

    Opens on best-price platform

    Compare & Trade

    2 platforms
    PPolymarket
    Best Yes
    Yes
    1¢
    No
    99¢
    Vol
    $7.1M
    $61.4K 24h
    Trade on Polymarket
    KKalshi
    Best No
    Yes
    3¢
    No
    99¢
    Vol
    $36.1K
    Trade on Kalshi

    Price History

    May 27 11:00May 28 15:00May 29 20:00May 31 00:00Jun 1 03:00Jun 2 08:260¢2¢4¢6¢8¢

    About This Market

    If Michelle Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

    How This Resolves

    KalshiKalshi

    Source: Official government sources (AP, official canvass)

    Rule: Resolves based on AP race call or official certified result, whichever comes first.

    View rule How to verify
    PolymarketPolymarket

    Source: AP or official government declaration

    Rule: Resolves based on AP call or official declaration. Admin review committee handles edge cases.

    View rule How to verify

    Different resolution sources can explain price gaps between platforms. Check both rules before interpreting a spread as an opportunity.

    Market Quality

    Kalshi:Broad consensus
    Poly:Concentrated
    Vol: $2.1M / $8.4M · Largest pos: <4% / ~18%

    Fee Impact at These Prices

    KKalshiat 3¢: exit costs ~0.18¢/contract
    PPolymarketat 1¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract
    Full calculator
    🏛️

    Market Details

    ResolutionResolves Oct 4, 2026
    Time Left124 days
    Status● Active
    CategoryPolitics

    Related reading

    External
    Lula would win Brazil's presidential election run-off with 48% of vote vs Michelle Bolsonaro's 43% - Datafolha poll | MarketScreener Canada
    Politics

    Lula would win Brazil's presidential election run-off with 48% of vote vs Michelle Bolsonaro's 43% - Datafolha poll | MarketScreener Canada

    1 minReuters
    Politics

    Datafolha: Michelle Bolsonaro tem 43% contra 48% de Lula em simulação de segundo turno

    1 minUnknown
    Why Michelle’s moves unsettle the Bolsonaro clan—and benefit Lula
    Politics

    Why Michelle’s moves unsettle the Bolsonaro clan—and benefit Lula

    1 minUnknown
    Politics

    Após "Dark Horse", Michelle empata com Flávio contra Lula no 2º turno

    1 minPODER360
    Michelle Bolsonaro takes leading role in Liberal Party
    Politics

    Michelle Bolsonaro takes leading role in Liberal Party

    1 minUnknown
    Jair Bolsonaro Urges Michelle Bolsonaro to Ente... | Brazil in English
    Politics

    Jair Bolsonaro Urges Michelle Bolsonaro to Ente... | Brazil in English

    1 minUnknown
    Bolsonaro weighs Michelle or Tarcísio for 2026 presidential bid
    Politics

    Bolsonaro weighs Michelle or Tarcísio for 2026 presidential bid

    1 minUnknown
    Brazil's Flávio Bolsonaro leans into Trump connection as scandal shakes his presidential bid - ABC News
    Politics

    Brazil's Flávio Bolsonaro leans into Trump connection as scandal shakes his presidential bid - ABC News

    1 minABC News

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