🏛️

    Fernando Haddad

    Volume

    $5.5M

    $19.7K 24h

    Platforms

    2

    Cross-platform pricing

    Resolution

    Resolves Oct 4, 2026

    ~124 days left

    Category

    Politics

    CHANCE OF YES6%94%
    Yes
    Kalshi
    No
    94¢
    Polymarket

    Opens on best-price platform

    Compare & Trade

    2 platforms
    PPolymarket
    Best No
    Yes
    No
    94¢
    Vol
    $5.3M
    $19.7K 24h
    Trade on Polymarket
    KKalshi
    Best Yes
    Yes
    No
    96¢
    Vol
    $169.9K
    Trade on Kalshi

    Price History

    May 27 11:00May 28 15:00May 29 20:00May 31 00:00Jun 1 03:00Jun 2 08:2613¢

    About This Market

    A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

    How This Resolves

    PolymarketPolymarket

    Source: AP or official government declaration

    Rule: Resolves based on AP call or official declaration. Admin review committee handles edge cases.

    KalshiKalshi

    Source: Official government sources (AP, official canvass)

    Rule: Resolves based on AP race call or official certified result, whichever comes first.

    Different resolution sources can explain price gaps between platforms. Check both rules before interpreting a spread as an opportunity.

    Market Quality

    Kalshi:Broad consensus
    Poly:Concentrated
    Vol: $2.1M / $8.4M · Largest pos: <4% / ~18%

    Fee Impact at These Prices

    PPolymarketat 6¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract
    KKalshiat 6¢: exit costs ~0.39¢/contract
    Full calculator

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